大(da)(da)(da)(da)宗(zong)(zong)商(shang)(shang)(shang)品(pin)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)在(zai)過去一(yi)年整體走高,市場波動(dong)率顯(xian)著(zhu)增加。而大(da)(da)(da)(da)宗(zong)(zong)商(shang)(shang)(shang)品(pin)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)在(zai)2021年上半年的(de)快速上漲更是引起了國(guo)(guo)家高層的(de)關注。 日前(qian),證監(jian)(jian)會(hui)(hui)(hui)主席易會(hui)(hui)(hui)滿指(zhi)出,在(zai)全球流(liu)動(dong)性過剩(sheng)、經濟復蘇不平衡、供需缺口擴(kuo)大(da)(da)(da)(da)等多(duo)種因素的(de)共同(tong)推(tui)(tui)動(dong)下(xia)(xia),部分(fen)大(da)(da)(da)(da)宗(zong)(zong)商(shang)(shang)(shang)品(pin)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)持(chi)續上漲。總體看(kan),期(qi)貨(huo)(huo)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)與現貨(huo)(huo)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)同(tong)向而行,但期(qi)貨(huo)(huo)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)漲幅小(xiao)于現貨(huo)(huo)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)。同(tong)時,相關大(da)(da)(da)(da)宗(zong)(zong)商(shang)(shang)(shang)品(pin)期(qi)貨(huo)(huo)品(pin)種的(de)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)發(fa)現、風險管理功能得(de)到較好(hao)發(fa)揮。 業(ye)內(nei)專家表示(shi),在(zai)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)監(jian)(jian)管趨嚴及宏觀調控背景下(xia)(xia),部分(fen)漲幅過大(da)(da)(da)(da)過快的(de)大(da)(da)(da)(da)宗(zong)(zong)商(shang)(shang)(shang)品(pin)的(de)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)已明(ming)顯(xian)會(hui)(hui)(hui)回(hui)落(luo);未來隨(sui)著(zhu)期(qi)貨(huo)(huo)與現貨(huo)(huo)聯動(dong)更加緊(jin)密(mi),大(da)(da)(da)(da)宗(zong)(zong)商(shang)(shang)(shang)品(pin)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)將逐漸回(hui)歸基(ji)本面。 上半年國(guo)(guo)內(nei)大(da)(da)(da)(da)宗(zong)(zong)商(shang)(shang)(shang)品(pin)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)表現顯(xian)分(fen)化 2021年1-5月(yue)(yue),以股市、債市及大(da)(da)(da)(da)宗(zong)(zong)商(shang)(shang)(shang)品(pin)為代表的(de)大(da)(da)(da)(da)類資產價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)波動(dong)率顯(xian)著(zhu)增加。中國(guo)(guo)物流(liu)與采購聯合會(hui)(hui)(hui)發(fa)布的(de)數(shu)據(ju)顯(xian)示(shi),5月(yue)(yue)份中國(guo)(guo)大(da)(da)(da)(da)宗(zong)(zong)商(shang)(shang)(shang)品(pin)指(zhi)數(shu)(CBMI)為100.2%。較上月(yue)(yue)回(hui)落(luo)3.1個百分(fen)點。指(zhi)數(shu)在(zai)連續三個月(yue)(yue)上升后(hou)出現明(ming)顯(xian)回(hui)落(luo),且跌至近(jin)五個月(yue)(yue)內(nei)的(de)最低。 “大(da)(da)(da)(da)宗(zong)(zong)商(shang)(shang)(shang)品(pin)過去一(yi)年,是在(zai)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)需求維持(chi)穩(wen)定和(he)海(hai)外需求邊際爆(bao)發(fa)的(de)背景下(xia)(xia)走高的(de)。大(da)(da)(da)(da)宗(zong)(zong)商(shang)(shang)(shang)品(pin)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)在(zai)外需的(de)增長(chang)預期(qi)下(xia)(xia)推(tui)(tui)高后(hou),國(guo)(guo)內(nei)明(ming)顯(xian)開始(shi)出現抑制下(xia)(xia)游需求的(de)跡象(xiang)。”混(hun)沌(dun)天成研究院宏觀組組長(chang)趙旭(xu)初分(fen)析認為,從數(shu)據(ju)來看(kan),如PPI和(he)CPI的(de)極大(da)(da)(da)(da)剪刀(dao)差,以及PMI出廠(chang)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)與PMI原材(cai)料購進價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)極負的(de)剪刀(dao)差。而后(hou)期(qi)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)需求卻開始(shi)出現承接乏力跡象(xiang)。 據(ju)東吳期(qi)貨(huo)(huo)研究所所長(chang)姜興春介紹,國(guo)(guo)內(nei)商(shang)(shang)(shang)品(pin)整體...
發布(bu)時間:
2021
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06
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15
瀏(liu)覽次(ci)數(shu):8
根據海(hai)關總署數據顯(xian)(xian)示,2021年(nian)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)中國(guo)銅(tong)精(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)進(jin)口(kou)量(liang)為194.5萬實物噸,環比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)1.25%,同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)15.02%;1-5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)銅(tong)精(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)銅(tong)精(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)進(jin)口(kou)量(liang)總量(liang)為982.7萬實物噸,累計(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)6.04%。一方(fang)面,五月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)以來,銅(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)大(da)(da)幅(fu)(fu)上漲,一度超(chao)過一萬美金,創下(xia)歷史新(xin)高,高銅(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)令貿易商承壓,廠家采(cai)(cai)購(gou)熱情(qing)(qing)(qing)不(bu)(bu)高,僅(jin)按需采(cai)(cai)購(gou),需求有所(suo)下(xia)降,但四(si)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)銅(tong)進(jin)口(kou)量(liang)大(da)(da)幅(fu)(fu)下(xia)降,在此(ci)對比(bi)下(xia),五月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)進(jin)口(kou)量(liang)環比(bi)小(xiao)幅(fu)(fu)上升。去(qu)(qu)年(nian)同期海(hai)外逐漸(jian)受到(dao)新(xin)冠疫(yi)情(qing)(qing)(qing)等影響(xiang),礦(kuang)山(shan)產(chan)量(liang)受到(dao)影響(xiang)進(jin)而導(dao)致國(guo)內進(jin)口(kou)量(liang)大(da)(da)減(jian),去(qu)(qu)年(nian)低基(ji)數下(xia)同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)(fu)明(ming)顯(xian)(xian)。 五月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)以來海(hai)外礦(kuang)端(duan)爭端(duan)不(bu)(bu)斷,必和(he)必拓旗下(xia)Escondida和(he)Spence礦(kuang)山(shan)遠程工會(hui)罷工,剛果(guo)(金)政府發布銅(tong)精(jing)(jing)礦(kuang)出口(kou)禁令,雖目(mu)前對產(chan)量(liang)未產(chan)生影響(xiang),但仍引發買方(fang)擔憂,且目(mu)前銅(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)仍處于高位運行,不(bu)(bu)少買家仍持觀望態度,買性不(bu)(bu)強。另外受廣東疫(yi)情(qing)(qing)(qing)影響(xiang),預計(ji)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)進(jin)口(kou)數據將(jiang)小(xiao)幅(fu)(fu)下(xia)降。(文(wen)(wen)章來源:上海(hai)有色網報道)【免責聲明(ming)】 本網所(suo)有文(wen)(wen)章或者轉載資訊僅(jin)供讀者作為參考(kao),本網僅(jin)出于傳遞給讀者更(geng)多信(xin)息(xi)之目(mu)的(de),并不(bu)(bu)意(yi)味(wei)著本網贊同其(qi)觀點或證實其(qi)內容的(de)真實性。如轉載稿件涉及(ji)版權等問題,請在兩周內來電或來函(han)聯系。
發布(bu)時(shi)間:
2021
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06
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08
瀏(liu)覽(lan)次數:16
原(yuan)材(cai)(cai)料價(jia)(jia)(jia)格指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)創下(xia)近十年(nian)來新(xin)高,抬(tai)高企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)成本(ben)的(de)(de)同時(shi)(shi),也(ye)正(zheng)在(zai)抑(yi)制(zhi)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)需(xu)求(qiu)的(de)(de)回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)。 5月(yue)(yue)31日,國(guo)家統(tong)計局和中(zhong)國(guo)物流與采購聯合會發布的(de)(de)制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)PMI為51.0%,比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)微落(luo)(luo)0.1個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。 由(you)于原(yuan)材(cai)(cai)料價(jia)(jia)(jia)格加快(kuai)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang),5月(yue)(yue)原(yuan)材(cai)(cai)料購進價(jia)(jia)(jia)格指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)為72.8%,比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)5.9個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),創下(xia)至(zhi)少近十年(nian)以來的(de)(de)歷(li)史新(xin)高,當月(yue)(yue)反映(ying)原(yuan)材(cai)(cai)料成本(ben)過(guo)高的(de)(de)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)比(bi)重較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)3個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)至(zhi)64.8%,亦(yi)創歷(li)史新(xin)高。 隨著上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)游行(xing)業(ye)(ye)漲(zhang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)向產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)鏈向中(zhong)下(xia)游傳導,原(yuan)材(cai)(cai)料購進價(jia)(jia)(jia)格的(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)正(zheng)帶動出(chu)廠價(jia)(jia)(jia)格的(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang),這(zhe)在(zai)一定程度(du)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)刺激(ji)了(le)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)擴(kuo)大生產(chan)(chan);同時(shi)(shi)也(ye)對市(shi)(shi)場(chang)需(xu)求(qiu)產(chan)(chan)生了(le)抑(yi)制(zhi)效應。 5月(yue)(yue)三大訂(ding)(ding)單(dan)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)全線(xian)回(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo):新(xin)訂(ding)(ding)單(dan)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)下(xia)降(jiang)0.7個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)至(zhi)51.3%,低于生產(chan)(chan)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)1.4個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian);反映(ying)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)需(xu)求(qiu)不足的(de)(de)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)比(bi)重結束連續10個月(yue)(yue)下(xia)降(jiang)的(de)(de)走勢(shi),再度(du)回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)。受市(shi)(shi)場(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升(sheng)、鋼鐵(tie)出(chu)口退稅取消(xiao)等(deng)影響,5月(yue)(yue)新(xin)出(chu)口訂(ding)(ding)單(dan)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)下(xia)降(jiang)2.1個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)至(zhi)48.3%,失(shi)守(shou)榮(rong)枯(ku)線(xian)。在(zai)手訂(ding)(ding)單(dan)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)也(ye)較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)回(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)0.5個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)至(zhi)45.9%。 由(you)于處于中(zhong)下(xia)游充分(fen)(fen)競爭領(ling)域,議價(jia)(jia)(jia)能力較弱,抵(di)御風險能力不足,5月(yue)(yue)小(xiao)型企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)PMI回(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)2個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),再度(du)失(shi)守(shou)榮(rong)枯(ku)線(xian),這(zhe)也(ye)使得當月(yue)(yue)從業(ye)(ye)人員(yuan)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)下(xia)降(jiang)0.7個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)至(zhi)48.9%。64.8%企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)反映(ying)原(yuan)材(cai)(cai)料價(jia)(jia)(jia)格過(guo)高 中(zhong)國(guo)物流信息中(zhong)心(xin)總經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)師陳中(zhong)濤接(jie)受21世紀經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)報道記(ji)者采訪時(shi)(shi)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)出(chu),盡(jin)管5月(yue)(yue)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)平穩恢復(fu)的(de)(de)勢(shi)頭并未(wei)改(gai)變,但需(xu)要高度(du)警惕大宗商品過(guo)快(kuai)漲(zhang)...
發(fa)布時間:
2021
-
06
-
01
瀏覽次(ci)數(shu):21
來源:國家統計(ji)局 發布時(shi)間:2020-01-17 2019年12月(yue)(yue)份(fen),規(gui)模(mo)(mo)以(yi)(yi)上工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)值(zhi)(zhi)同(tong)比(bi)實(shi)際增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)6.9%(以(yi)(yi)下(xia)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)值(zhi)(zhi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)均(jun)為扣除價格因素的實(shi)際增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)率),增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)比(bi)11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)加(jia)(jia)快0.7個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。從環比(bi)看,12月(yue)(yue)份(fen),規(gui)模(mo)(mo)以(yi)(yi)上工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)值(zhi)(zhi)比(bi)上月(yue)(yue)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)0.58%。1—12月(yue)(yue)份(fen),規(gui)模(mo)(mo)以(yi)(yi)上工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)值(zhi)(zhi)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)5.7%。 分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)三大門類(lei)看,12月(yue)(yue)份(fen),采礦(kuang)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)值(zhi)(zhi)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)5.6%,增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)較(jiao)11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)回落0.1個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian);制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)7.0%,加(jia)(jia)快0.7個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian);電(dian)(dian)(dian)力、熱力、燃(ran)氣及水生(sheng)產(chan)和(he)(he)(he)供(gong)應(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)6.8%,加(jia)(jia)快0.1個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。 分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)經濟類(lei)型看,12月(yue)(yue)份(fen),國有(you)控股(gu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)值(zhi)(zhi)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)7.0%;股(gu)份(fen)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)7.5%,外商(shang)(shang)及港(gang)澳(ao)臺商(shang)(shang)投(tou)資企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)4.8%;私營(ying)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)7.1%。 分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)看,12月(yue)(yue)份(fen),41個(ge)大類(lei)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)中有(you)33個(ge)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)值(zhi)(zhi)保(bao)持同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)。農副(fu)食品(pin)加(jia)(jia)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)下(xia)降0.3%,紡(fang)織業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)0.2%,化學原料和(he)(he)(he)化學制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)7.7%,非金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)礦(kuang)物制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)8.4%,黑色(se)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)冶煉和(he)(he)(he)壓延(yan)加(jia)(jia)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)10.7%,有(you)色(se)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)冶煉和(he)(he)(he)壓延(yan)加(jia)(jia)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)5.0%,通用設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)4.9%,專用設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)6.5%,汽(qi)車制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)10.4%,鐵路、船(chuan)舶、航空航天和(he)(he)(he)其(qi)他(ta)運輸設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)下(xia)降6.8%,電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣機械和(he)(he)(he)器(qi)材制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)12.4%,計(ji)算機、通信和(he)(he)(he)其(qi)他(ta)電(dian)(dian)(dian)子設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)11.6%,電(dian)(dian)(dian)力、熱力生(sheng)產(chan)和(he)(he)(he)供(gong)應(ying)...
發布(bu)時(shi)間(jian):
2020
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01
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19
瀏覽次數:39